![]() Despite the prevalent tendency for humans to make systematically biased probability assessments, there is still considerable debate within psychology and economics as to whether such beliefs are aligned with psychological well-being. However, unrealistic optimism has also been documented for purely chance events ( Langer & Roth, 1975). The bias tends to be highest when events are perceived to be under the individual’s control ( Kahneman et al., 1982), that is, when outcomes can be influenced through effort or ingenuity ( Harris et al., 2008). Unrealistic optimism has been found to be one of the most pervasive human traits, with studies consistently reporting that a large majority of the population (about 80% according to most estimates) display an optimism bias ( Sharot, 2011). ![]() Here, optimism is viewed as a preponderance toward positive forecasting errors or, more formally, as the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive events, and underestimate the likelihood of negative events ( Weinstein, 1980 Weinstein & Klein, 1996). That is, by adopting the alternate psychological perspective of unrealistic optimism. This problem is eliminated by examining how beliefs affect well-being controlling for outcomes. A finding that positive beliefs are associated with higher well-being may partly reflect the realistic expectation of people likely to have positive experiences. However, demonstrating the benefits of dispositional optimism is not straightforward. Here, positive beliefs are advantageous, as those with an optimistic disposition are thought to be able to cope in a more adaptive way to stressful situations ( Scheier & Carver, 1993). Is it best to expect the best? Research into dispositional optimism-generalized outcome expectancies that good things will happen ( Scheier et al., 1994)-finds that positive beliefs are fundamental for a variety of different positive psychological and physical health-relevant outcomes ( Scheier & Carver, 1987, 1992, 1993). Also, plans based on inaccurate beliefs are bound to deliver worse outcomes than would rational expectations. For optimists, disappointment may eventually dominate the anticipatory feelings of expecting the best while for pessimists the depressing effect of expecting doom may eventually dominate the elation when the worst is avoided. These findings may result from the decision errors and counteracting emotions associated with holding biased beliefs. The effects are not small, with those holding the most pessimistic (optimistic) expectations experiencing a 21.8% (13.5%) reduction in long-run well-being. We index unrealistic optimism as the difference between financial expectations and financial realizations measured annually over 18 years. Using a representative British sample ( N = 1,601) it finds that, as measured by two established well-being indicators, those with mistaken expectations, whether optimistic or pessimistic, do worse than realists. This article speaks to the classic view that mental health requires accurate self-perception. All subjects Allied Health Cardiology & Cardiovascular Medicine Dentistry Emergency Medicine & Critical Care Endocrinology & Metabolism Environmental Science General Medicine Geriatrics Infectious Diseases Medico-legal Neurology Nursing Nutrition Obstetrics & Gynecology Oncology Orthopaedics & Sports Medicine Otolaryngology Palliative Medicine & Chronic Care Pediatrics Pharmacology & Toxicology Psychiatry & Psychology Public Health Pulmonary & Respiratory Medicine Radiology Research Methods & Evaluation Rheumatology Surgery Tropical Medicine Veterinary Medicine Cell Biology Clinical Biochemistry Environmental Science Life Sciences Neuroscience Pharmacology & Toxicology Biomedical Engineering Engineering & Computing Environmental Engineering Materials Science Anthropology & Archaeology Communication & Media Studies Criminology & Criminal Justice Cultural Studies Economics & Development Education Environmental Studies Ethnic Studies Family Studies Gender Studies Geography Gerontology & Aging Group Studies History Information Science Interpersonal Violence Language & Linguistics Law Management & Organization Studies Marketing & Hospitality Music Peace Studies & Conflict Resolution Philosophy Politics & International Relations Psychoanalysis Psychology & Counseling Public Administration Regional Studies Religion Research Methods & Evaluation Science & Society Studies Social Work & Social Policy Sociology Special Education Urban Studies & Planning BROWSE JOURNALS
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